Rotomolding and the Future

The old cliché says that predictions are tough – especially when they involve the future. So, let’s be clear from the beginning – that means no pretense here of any accurate view of where the next few decades will take us, just a review of a few selected world dynamics looking at how they might affect our future lives and industry.

On the world-stage, rotomolding is a small industry. With only 4000-5000 companies involved (depending on who you listen to and their definition of what constitutes a molder), and most being small entrepreneurial enterprises it occupies less than 2% of the global needs for polyethylene. Small is not necessarily bad but it means that development can be limited and progress slow. The typically positive aspects for rotomolders (low barrier-to-entry, entrepreneurial approach, small batch production and ease of processing of polyethylene) can also be drawbacks in the sense that the industry is fragmented and limited in terms of materials or easy-to-access product ranges. The fact that tolerances tend to be wider than other applications, throughput can be slow and there is a heavy dependence on manual labor can deflect attention from potential high-volume users.

Within the industry there are highlights, however. Technical products, aesthetic finishes, high volume production, advanced materials and complex design can be found in key industries and at molders prepared to invest in machines, molds and training that support demanding products. The downside is that the majority of the industry does not make these investments and relies on simple products and operator skill for their success. The distribution of molders from high-tech to low is pyramidic in nature with a wide base of entry-level molders and few at the apex integrated with high-level customers. What will become of this distribution over time? Will molders all progress their technology and product ranges? Most likely not as there will always be a need for basic containers, barriers pallets and simple consumer products that are the mainstay of many molders – but there may be changes from without which have a bearing on how the industry develops within. The scope is wide for such analysis, from political to environmental, from cosmic matters to microscopic and from people to robots. Here we take a look at six such areas and their relevance as a broader background for rotomolding: population trends, micro-finance, communication, artificial intelligence, climate change & energy and the microbiome & microbiology

Population Trends

Over the next forty years, ageing populations will affect not only developed nations but also many of those still developing or emerging today. Estimates for the global population stand at 10 billion people by 2056 from the current 7 billion today. While this projected growth will be mitigated by rising living standards and better education, there is no doubt that there will be considerable pressures on worldwide resources. The effects will play out differently around the world, however. There are many potential examples and endless comparison are possible but a look at the two largest economies is instructive. In the US, the baby boomer surge of the 60’s will pass through to full retirement and, as improved medical care and rising costs kick-in, will become a potential burden to the economy. There is an expected growth in population but with it a steady replacement of young people (see chart below – courtesy of www.populationpyramids.net) – most likely due to net migration.

Projected Population Distribution by Age for the US & China in 2056

China, on the other hand, will see a massive shift from the youthful dominance of the 1980s to a top-heavy system, not only with a reducing population but one with a disproportionate number of older people at the upper end and a shrinking base. China is strong at the moment but has a rapidly approaching problem which the world needs to help them address.

What does this mean potentially for rotomolding? As the boomers retire, they have more resources than previous generations and more experience than ever before: this opens up markets for higher quality goods. They are the most divorced, least religious and more prone to be less socially engaged but with a gradually declining proportion of young people in the workforce, many will work beyond traditional retirement limits. Rotomolding in its current form is hard work and most seniors will not be able to meet these demands: they might be called upon to take over the less physically demanding aspects of operations or molders will have to retool their systems to make the process more automated and easier to operate. Respecting the older generation as a resource is the key.

At the same time, millennials entering the business world are probably the best educated ever but are worse off than in several generations. They marry later and have fewer kids and are more likely to still be living with their parents. They are likely to live longer than any generation in history but can potentially expect to work for six decades rather than four. Rotomolders are often simple command and control structures: this may not suit the average millennial who demands more involvement and inspiration at work. Involving the younger generation is the key.

Micro-Finance

Little noticed in the West but of great significance in developing regions is the influence of micro-financing and the ability to use cellphones for transferring payments without a bank account. Small loans from banks or community organizations for farmers and small businesses based on trust and community lending rules offer the ability for people to start their own businesses or support their families. Access to banking is almost impossible for huge rural areas in many countries, particularly Africa, but mobile money transfer via cellphones has overcome this.

Cellphone use has also become ubiquitous across previously inaccessible regions – they are no longer luxury items but essential tools for people to help improve education, access weather and information for farmers to improve productivity and help coordinate efforts in the event of disasters. There are even apps to help identify genuine medicine from the huge influx of fake copies that have flooded Africa, for example.

As a result, literally tens of millions of people are being lifted out of poverty. This is part of the global averaging process which has now been in effect for several decades: growth in the west has slowed while major parts of the world continue to rise. The process is producing an aware entrepreneurial class with visibility through the internet of what success looks like in other parts of the world. Rotomolding is a classic entrepreneur’s process – low cost of entry, a simple process (at least initially) and essential products – which makes it more accessible than most plastics process. The result will be a growing group of entry-level molders around the world producing the basic five rotomolding products for their local markets (water tanks/containers, road-barriers, pallets, playgrounds/toys, kayaks); witness the recent growth that has already taken place in China, India and Brazil in recent years.

Communication

The surge in communication tools is undoubtedly a force that has changed the course of human history. The long-held fantasy of access to all knowledge, all of the time is rapidly becoming true through the internet and cellphones. The benefits are profound as the process is driven by the curiosity of the human mind. However, there is a dark side to the process and one that is not yet fully understood by the population at large. Yet.

Social media, data mining, GPS tracking, emails, phone records, banking records, credit cards, medical records, government metadata – the depth of information available today on everyone is unprecedented and everyone is now part of the ‘harvest’. So-called benign uses to help improve services and focus advertising represent the slippery slope to manipulation of mass reaction for commercial and political gain. Companies can now analyze data for not only preferences but personality traits and lifestyle. Targeted data moves beyond selling to manipulating direction of mass responses – just watch the spin machines handle information on the 24-hour news cycle.

All companies need to gather more data on their customers which, when used correctly, can help improve the response and performance of an organization. Rotational molding associations are no different and need to improve their market intelligence to remain relevant. The Association of Rotational Molders (ARM) is in danger of becoming the Association of Rotational Molding Suppliers (ARMS) as membership and meeting attendance tilts towards suppliers. The attractiveness of membership is based on mutual needs and a 50/50 mix might work well for all involved but should the pendulum swing too far, the benefits may not seem apparent. Better data and intelligence on both current and potential members might be useful in promoting the primary benefit of membership (face-to-face networking) beyond the current audience.

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence has always been a fascination in science fiction but has grown more and more relevant as the devices that we use every day provide functions that we once thought of as fantasy. A challenge for this term is that it typically refers to an artificial being capable of independent thought and action, vastly superior to humans. A number of today’s leading technologists refer to the singularity at which point AI recognizes humanity as a threat and takes over. There are certainly clever programs and machines available and considerable effort has been spent on areas such as neural networks, DeepMind, quantum computing. These undoubtedly move towards even more advanced systems but still remain firmly within the realm of ‘smart’ but not necessarily intelligent. True intelligence requires thought beyond lines of code and pre-programmed actions and needs imagination to create an alternative vision – something which is still well beyond current computing. Time will tell whether the gap can be breached but the real fear for today is that we are building ever more complex systems that fewer and fewer people understand (think self-driving cars, stock market trading and air traffic control). Ultimately it may be the melding of the human mind with direct access to the power of silicon storage and computing power that will create the first power gap between humans. Technology that allows direct mind control of computing devices will create a new generation of super-intelligence that may be difficult to control.

However, automation for the rotomolding industry is a must. The rise of 3D printing which has been used to print entire car body shells and the supporting frame (in metal) will affect certain technical segments of the industry. As prices drop, this may extend even further. Blow molding is also targeting segments of rotomolding where volumes can justify the high initial capital costs (water tanks in India, septic tanks in the US and kayaks in Europe, for example). The challenge for most rotomolders is that they are typically small and cannot afford to implement automation for automation’s sake or the projects are short run and the return on investment does not exist.

Just how much automation is possible or practical is the real question. Completely automated rotomolding has been shown to be possible but systems for loading molds and extracting parts (the most manual components of the process) can prove prohibitive for short production runs. Rare long-run rotomolding projects might be able to justify it but even then, the flexible human robot can be programmed much more readily. If mechanical flexible robots with advanced capabilities become available at a reasonable cost, then it may be possible to substitute more of the manual rotomolding component. In the meantime, improving material handling, mold opening and part finishing are all areas that can be automated or at least semi-automated readily.

Climate Change & Energy

Climate change is real – by definition it has to change. The reasons for it, however, are complex and are neither singular nor linear. True scientific debate looks at all aspects and offers alternatives to the political pseudo-science currently driving green agendas – those willing to look will find a growing number of serious, dissenting voices on the subject. Only time will provide the answer.

However, in the meantime, the political climate developing around the world may at some point cause the rotomolding process, with its apparent energy inefficiency, to be deemed a ‘dirty’ process. Despite the fact that the energy component in the final selling price of a rotomolded part is typically quite small and natural gas is one of the cleanest forms of energy available, rotomolders may find themselves under considerable pressure. Energy recovery and pollution controls may become prohibitive especially for the already installed base of rotomolding machines worldwide which have a long operating lifecycle. Electric rotomolding machines, both conventional and semi-automated, have been built but the relative cost of electricity may not make them suitable in all locations. Better circulation systems, well-sealed and highly insulated ovens, energy efficient molds and faster processing materials may all help but rotomolders everywhere should be ready for possible legal changes.

The Microbiome & Microbiology

Science may be looking at the macro issues of climate and energy use but it is also delving into the microscopic. Areas such as the microbiome, antibiotic resistance and Crispr-Cas9 show the possible relevance of the smallest components of life to our world.

Studies on the human microbiome and its effects on health are opening doors to understanding never before thought possible. A human body is composed of around 33 trillion cells but is also host to around 39 trillion microorganisms both inside and out. This microbiome is involved in our normal day-to-day living, our response to disease and even possibly the evolution of humans as the microorganisms guide the development of these responses to suit their own needs.

The age of antibiotic resistance is well underway as bacteria are winning an incremental battle against conventional drugs. Over-use of antibiotics in factory farming of animals as well as improper use by patients (not completing a course or flushing them into the sewer system, for example) have transformed normally treatable bacteria into superbugs which can no longer be treated by the last line of defense drugs. We are now dependent on new approaches for attacking bacteria cells without giving them an opportunity to mutate and develop resistance –  this includes alphamers which attach themselves to invading bacteria and direct human white cells to attack them instead. If these technologies don’t become viable soon, the numbers of deaths due to relatively common but now untreatable diseases will rise.

Probably one of the most dramatic breakthroughs in recent years has been the advent of a technique known as Crispr-Cas9. This is a combination that can both target a specific sequence in a strand of DNA and then edit the strand with a precise replacement sequence. This gene-editing capability has revolutionized not only accuracy but also the ability to make changes that were not possible before. Modifications to plants and animals for improved growth or resistance to disease have been around for some time but these can now be made even more precisely. The possibility for editing the human genome to eliminate traits which make us susceptible to disease or enhance traits which are desirable is now real. How to use it now becomes the question. Examples include algae or plants which can ‘grow’ plastics or fuels; catalyst systems that promote low-energy production systems to replace energy intensive systems; bacteria which ‘eat’ PET for recycling; molecular level ‘sieves’ for separating chemicals. The possibility to modify eye-color, eyesight, hair growth or even eliminate hereditary diseases is now in the hands of scientists. Recent announcements by Facebook, Google and Microsoft aim to either target or eliminate all disease by focusing science in these fundamental areas using similar techniques in combination with artificial intelligence. Let’s hope they succeed before the bacteria!

There is no doubt that rotomolding will thrive in the coming decades. Molders will move inevitably towards enhancing automation, attention to energy consumption will grow, there will be improvements in material (at least within polyethylene and hopefully beyond), there will be lots more entrepreneurs joining its ranks and they will still be making water tanks. Look forward to seeing you in the future!

from an article at RotoWorld®
https://rotoworldmag.com/rotomolding-and-the-future/